Horse Racing Betting Tips

Archive for the ‘General Comments’ Category

As we have now completed the first month of the Horse Racing Betting Tips Blog we thought it would be worthwhile taking a look at performance over that month.

• We identified 55 selections
• 84% of these selections were over jumps (our preference)
• 15 of the selections won (strike rate of 23.6%)
• 25 of the selections won or were placed (rate of 45.5%)
• Our longest losing run was 7 races without win. We had two of these.
• On £1 level stakes we ended up down by £16.03.

Commentary: Our results for the month were helped greatly by an improvement in results over the second half of the month.

• We had 2 wins from our 18 selections in the first half of the month (11% strike rate) and;
• 13 wins from our 37 selections in the second half of the month (35% strike rate).

We’re fairly confident that this reflects the improvement in going conditions that also occurred during the month – better training conditions and more of the better quality Autumn horses being entered for races.

Returns were generally low, influenced hugely by the very low prices of several of our winners – 5 of our winners were odds-on and three of these were less than 2/1 on! This again, we believe, is a reflection of the dry weather which resulted in some unusually small fields.

As a reminder, our system was developed with the express aims of:

• Delivering several hot selections worth betting on each day (because we enjoy the excitement of watching a couple of races a day with our stakes on them)
• Delivering a reasonable strike rate – we aim for 25% (because we love the thrill of getting a winner every couple of days or so)
• Delivering a modest return – we aim for a 15-25% return on £1 level stakes (because that makes it all worthwhile).

So, this month, whilst we haven’t met all our objectives we do have some encouraging signs from the latter half of the month that give us confidence that November should be more fruitful.

Here’s to November and some really exciting National Hunt racing with the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Kauto Star’s return to the Betfair Chase at Haydock and 70 National Hunt meetings to go at (compared with the 40 during October).

Horse Racing Betting Tips Review of Tuesday: Tuesday’s selection of Lucky Punt obliged by winning at 85/40.

We have now delivered 7 winners from our 21 selections over the last 7 days and Recent Performance holds steady:

20 Race Win Rate: steady at 30%
20 Race Place Rate: steady at 50% (from 55%)

Wednesday presents us with one ‘cautious’ selection and two ‘hot’ selections at Haydock’s National Hunt meeting:

Haydock 1350: Silver Steel (cautious)
Haydock 1455: Killard Point (hot)
Haydock 1600: Thai Vango (hot)

Let’s hope we can keep our 20 race strike rate above our target of 25%.

Horse Racing Betting Tips Review of Monday: Our Monday selection, Carter, achieved a creditable 2nd delivering a good each-way return, particularly if you picked him up at 16/1 first thing in the morning.

Recent Performance holds steady:

20 Race Win Rate: steady at 30%
20 Race Place Rate: steady at 50% (from 55%)

No jumps meetings on Tuesday so our selection is from the flat meeting at Southwell:

Southwell 1520: Lucky Punt

Happy racing.

Horse Racing Betting Tips found this interesting article on Sporting Life.Com by National Hunt jockey Wayne Hutchinson on the challenges of training jump horses when there’s no rain.Click here for Sporting Life Article

After a disappointing day on Sunday with only one winner from the five selections and, more importantly, a discussion with an owner, we have decided to downrate our horse racing betting tips selections to ‘cautious’ for the time being. Ogee was our one winner … at 2/5 on. There are very few horses worth betting on at odds-on let alone at 2/5 on. Still, it’s a winner.

More interestingly on Sunday, was a discussion with an owner who bemoaned this lovely Indian Summer that we have enjoyed over the last few weeks. No rain for something like four weeks has left racecourses having to put a fair amount of water onto the courses before racing. So, surely goings were reasonably good, maybe a little on the firm side. I was reminded, however, by my owner friend that the courses aren’t the problem, it’s the training grounds. Many trainers just don’t have the luxury of abundant water supplies and, particularly, National Hunt horses aren’t necessarily getting the level of schooling that they might normally enjoy.

So, we have decided to take a breather for a week or so until the rain that has arrived in the last few days has had a chance to permeate the ground and soften it up for the arrival of the autumn/winter jump horses.

Meanwhile, we’ll take the opportunity over the next few days to explain a bit more about our selection system and its track record. Keep checking back for daily updates.

This selection system has been operating now for over 3 years. It was ‘tuned’ primarily for steeplechase racing and has, over the last 12 months, delivered a strike rate (number of wins / number of races) of 26% with a profit on stakes of about 20% across 550 races.

With some filtering, it is possible to isolate horses that fit a particular set of criteria; these are the ‘hot’ selections which are expected to have a greater prospect of success and a greater profit return on stakes. The hot selections have delivered a strike rate of 32.6% and a profit on stakes of 60.4%. These hot selections account for a third of all our selections. At this stage we are only presenting hot selections on the blog.

As with all selection systems, however, it is important to acknowledge that the length of a losing run is what is what saps our confidence and more importantly determines how much money we need to retain in our pot. With our hot selections our maximum losing run at the moment is 7 races without a win and we have only had one of those.

We have also noticed that performance during July, August and early September is not great and is probably attributable to this being a fairly quiet time for the National Hunt season, with low quality horses racing in low quality races (ie low prize value races). Low quality horses generally display inconsistent results.

Performance usually picks up in October as the number of National Hunt meetings increases and we approach the bigger prize money events that occur through November to April.

In later blogs I will explain a bit more about the methods we use to identify our selections.

Friday’s Selections:
Beautiful Vision lost it in last 20 yards to the post, coming in 2nd !
Morestead led comfortably on first circuit then dropped away badly strolling in towards the back of the field.