Horse Racing Betting Tips

Archive for the ‘Huntingdon’ Category

Horse Racing Betting Tips Review of Friday: Unfortunately our hot selection , Chapel Flowers, was a non-runner on Friday – having had a very resounding victory on Thursday.

So, Recent Performance stays above target:

20 Race Win Rate: rises to 30% (from 25%)
20 Race Place Rate: rises to 65% (from 55%)

Our three hot selections for Saturday are:

Ascot 1320: Cockney Trucker
Ayr 1415: John Forbes
Ascot 1500: Classic Swain

Come back on Sunday for a review of the month and selections for Carlisle and Huntingdon’s National Hunt meetings.

Just one cautious Horse racing Betting Tips selection today:

Huntingdon 1630: Toby Jug

So with a quiet day’s racing we thought we’d give you a bit more information on the system we use.

The system is based on the premise that a horse that comes in second but loses by only a short head is probably a better class than a horse that comes in second losing by 10 lengths. What we do when assessing runners in a race is look at each horse’s last 5 races and award the horse a fraction of the race prize money in each race depending on the distance it was beaten by, or won by, in the case of winning horses. We then end up with a total prize money rating for each horse – this is what we use to rank the horses in a race.

There is a bit more complexity behind the calculation of prize money entitlement in thise last 5 races. For example, we use a discounting technique so that the race prize is adjusted to reflect how recently the race was run – recent form presumed to be more significant than long past form. In that way, a win in a £10,000 race a month ago is deemed more valuable than a win in a £10,000 race 12 months ago. We also take account of the going in each race.

So once we have calculated each runner’s prize money rating and identified the top-ranked horse we then check how good a prospect that top-ranked horse is ( ie a cautious or a hot selection). We use two factors to assess it’s prospects:
- the prize money margin between the top-ranked horse and the second-ranked horse, ie the ‘convincingness’, and;
- the ratio of the top-ranked horse’s prize money rating to the value of the race that we’re evaluating.

That second factor, the prize/value ratio, is fairly significant and can, for example identify horses that might be stepping up or down in class.

With our substantial database of results we have been able to identify the combinations of Convincingness and Prize Money/Value ratio that offer the best prospects of wins and returns on stakes.

The system is not foolproof and we don’t pretend to ourselves that it can deliver 50%+ success rates. We have aimed for a system that identifies horses that are up their with the winners. The system can never eliminate the vagaries of horse racing – weather, does the horse want to run that day, how a horse recovers from recent races ….. The system is merely a tool that has helped us spot certain factors that seem to be more significant than others when assessing a horse’s prospects.

Over the next several weeks we’ll let you know more about our results, the patterns we have seen and the staking plans that we have tested and use.

Doc Reason pulled up and Epsom Salts unplaced is not a great result for a Saturday but neither of these was a hot selection.

Sunday does look more promising, however, with four selections recommended with the first three hot and the fourth selection, Scotch Corner, a possible each way chance as he is apt to be pulled up:

Kelso 1455 Nile Moon
Huntingdon 1550 Toni Alcala
Uttoxeter 1615 Ogee
Uttoxeter 1755 Scotch Corner

All of these except Ogee look likely to go off at fairly big prices – anything at more than 6-1 could be worth an each way punt.

Don’t be put off by big-priced horses. They can be a significant contributor to your profits. Remember you only need 16-1 winners at a strike rate of at least 6% to be in profit over the long run. Our system does tend to perform reasonably well on long-priced horses. Over the last year’s chase races we have achieved the following:

Odds of 10 to 12-1, strike rate = 16%
Odds of 12 to 14-1, strike rate = 8%
Odds of 14 to 16-1, strike rate = 9%
Odds of 16 to 20-1, strike rate = 0% (very few races with selections at these odds)
Odds of 20 to 33-1, strike rate = 9%