Horse Racing Betting Tips

Archive for the ‘Kemp’ Category

Saturday’s results suggest that maybe Horse Racing Betting Tips is on a return to form with Silk Drum (Kelso 1530) and Lahib the Fifth (Kelso 1745) both winning at 8/13 and 4.5/1 respectively and On My Terms coming in second in the 1420.

With five bets in total yesterday these two wins deliver a net profit of 42% on level stakes ie. same stake on each bet. We use a modified version of a Martingale system to decide our stakes and as a consequence managed a return yesterday of 84%.

A traditional Martingale is a form of bet used in roulette whereby the punter doubles his stake on an even money bet (eg red or black, even or odd) after each loss and after a win returns to his starting stake. In this way, when the punter’s selection eventually comes up after a losing streak he will recoup all his previous stakes incurred during that losing run and find himself up by one unit. The system does, however, have one significant limitation. If the punter is betting £10 stakes then a run of, for example, 6 losses will mean that on his 7th bet he will be staking £640 and after placing this bet he will have staked £1270 ! But even an unlimited supply of money will not allow punters to win in the long run as casinos will have set a maximum stake limit that can be hit pretty quickly with this sort of system. So the Martingale can be a pretty rapid route to poverty – it is after all a system based on ‘chasing the losses’.

But there is a more modest way to use a Martingale concept in deciding stakes in horse racing, provided that the punter has an understanding of where his returns tend to come from (ie the starting prices of the successful selection) and what the length of his losing streaks look like. We have found that a multiplier ratio of 1.3 to 1.5, for subsequent bets after a loss, can work quite successfully for us. For example, let’s assume we use a multiplier of 1.4 and our starting stake is £5 – and the horse loses. And the next one and the next one… Let’s assume that we have a losing streak of 8 before we strike lucky on the 9th race with a 3-1 winner. So, after 8 races we will have staked out £172 (£5 + £6 + £7.20 … etc). Our 9th stake of £74 will take our total exposure (our losses to date) to £246. The 9th horse wins at 3-1 delivering us £296 (3 x £74 plus our stake of £74). So our profit for the campaign of 9 races works out at £50 which is equivalent to a return on all the stakes of about 20.3% (£50 / £246).

If instead we had just spread that lump of £246 worth of stakes across the 9 horses equally (£bets of £27.31 each) then the 9th race would only have delivered £109 back, including our stake, resulting in an overall loss over the 9 races of £137 !

So, used with knowledge of your typical losing streak length and average odds of your winning selections and a reasonable lump of money in your pot, a modified Martingale can give you a better chance of getting back into profit. But, do make sure you know what your maximum exposure and stake will be after a really long losing streak because for this system to work you will have to have the nerve and money to be placing bets that could be 20, 30, 40 or more times your original starting bet ! That’s when nerves and confidence are really tested.

[So how did we manage an 84% return yesterday ? We started with a £50 stake. On my Terms lost. Our next stake was £70 on Silk Drum at 8/13 - we got £113 back. We then re-started with a £50 stake on Ave - lost. £70 on The Shy Man - lost. We then placed £90 on Lahib the Fifth, taking our total exposure on this losing sequence to £210 - big but not yet too scarey. Lahib the Fifth won and we got him at 9/2 returning us £495. Total returns including stakes for this campaign were £113 plus £495 totalling £608. Our total stakes on the day were £330 so we made a profit of £278, equivalent to a return on our stakes of 84%].

Our selections for today are still at ‘cautious’ status (we want to see that we’re back onto consistent results before moving back to ‘hot’ !) and they are:

Kemp 1450: Bergo (could be odds-on so be wary)
Font 1535: Majy d’Auteuil.

Enjoy the day.